The Future of the Egyptian Fish Exports under the Local & International Changes

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Agricultural Economics – Faculty of Agriculture - Fayoum University

2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Fish Resources, Suez University, Suez, Egypt

3 PhD Student at Human Development and Economics, Faculty of Fish Resources, Suez University, Suez, Egypt

Abstract

The research problem indicates that despite the importance of the Egyptian fish exports and the existence of many components which support its competitive attitude in the international markets but commodity and geographical concentration for the Egyptian fish exports have been noticed over the last few years. These points out to the importance of identifying the developments influencing Egypt's fish exports and forecasting its future. The research aimed mainly at forecasting the Egyptian fish exports so as to propose a group of policies and mechanisms suitable for developing these exports and increase their geographical and commodity variations from various fish varieties. By studying the species distribution for the Egyptian fish exports, it became clear that the most important exports of the fish varieties are the fresh, chilled, and frozen fish followed by the various types of shrimps, crustacean and Mollusca then comes the processed fish (frozen, salted, or cut & packaged) in addition to a limited contribution of live and ornamental fish exports. By presenting the most important features of the geographical distribution of the Egyptian fish exports for the average period (2005 – 2020) at the level of the countries, the most important countries imported the Egyptian fish at the Arab level is Lebanon whereas the most important countries at the European level was Italy, and it became clear that there is a large geographical concentration in the Egyptian fish Through forecasting the expected future quantity of the Egyptian fish exports for Period (2021-2025) ranged between 47.3 thousand tons as a minimum in 2020 and 60 thousand tons as a maximum limit in 2025. The forecasting values, ranged through in the ARIMA model between 58.4 thousand tons as a minimum limit in 2020 and 85.5 thousand tons as a maximum limit in 2025. The forecasted values using the Simultaneous equations model ranged between 52.8 thousand tons as a minimum limit in 2020 and 74.7 thousand tons as a maximum limit in 2025.

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